In the short run, there’s not a wide difference in outcomes; notice how after year three or so the portfolios are tracking fairly closely. But after about the tenth year they begin to diverge quite a bit. And after 30 years, the differences are dramatic. The 10% volatility portfolio has more than $3.7mil but the 25% volatility portfolio has only $1.8mil.

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Volatility Drag

All four of the lines above represent an average 5% return. The only difference between them is how much the returns fluctuate from year to year. In the case of the 10% volatility example, with 5% as the average return, you oscillate between a +15% one year and -5% the next. Specifically, each line is represented as shown on the right —->

10% volatility

  • starting value $1,000,000

  • terminal value (30 years) $3,769,829

15% volatility

  • starting value $1,000,000

  • terminal value (30 years) $3,172,169

20% volatility

  • starting value $1,000,000

  • terminal value (30 years) $2,482,756

25% volatility

  • starting value $1,000,000

  • terminal value (30 years) $1,800,944